U.S. Agricultural Commodity Prices and Trends: 2026 Outlook into 2026/27

1. 2026 Price Environment: Tighter Supplies, Firmer Crop Prices, Continued Livestock Strength

The 2026/27 outlook is firmer than the prior year for several major commodities. USDA’s May 2026 WASDE projects tighter U.S. supplies and higher season-average farm prices for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton, cattle, and milk, largely reflecting lower crop acreage, reduced wheat production, strong crush/biofuel demand, and continued tight livestock supplies.[1] Globally, food prices remain elevated compared with 2025; the FAO Food Price Index averaged 130.8 points in May 2026, down slightly from April but 2.9% higher than a year earlier, with cereal prices rising due to tighter wheat supplies and higher fuel/fertilizer costs.[2]

2. Major Row Crops

2.1 Corn

The 2026/27 corn outlook is for lower production than the record 2025 crop, with USDA projecting production near 16.0 billion bushels and a season-average farm price of $4.40 per bushel, up from about $4.15 in 2025/26.[3] Corn acreage is down from the prior year as producers shift some acres to soybeans due to relative input costs and stronger soybean economics.[4] Demand remains supported by feed, ethanol, and exports, but South American competition continues to limit upside potential.[5]

2.2 Soybeans

Soybeans are expected to be comparatively stronger in 2026/27. USDA projects the 2026/27 soybean season-average farm price at $11.40 per bushel, up from $10.40 in 2025/26.[6] The principal support comes from increased domestic crush, soybean oil demand tied to renewable fuels, and improved export prospects, including renewed Chinese buying interest.[7] USDA and Reuters report that U.S. farmers are expected to plant more soybeans and less corn in 2026, reflecting both market prices and fertilizer-sensitive production economics.[4]

2.3 Wheat

Wheat shows the largest year-over-year price improvement. USDA’s May 2026 WASDE projects U.S. wheat production at approximately 1.56 billion bushels, down sharply from 2025/26 due to lower harvested area and drought-related yield pressure, with ending stocks falling about 18% and the season-average farm price projected at $6.50 per bushel, up about $1.50 from the prior year.[8] Global wheat markets remain sensitive to Black Sea supply, weather in major exporters, and rising fuel/fertilizer costs.[2]

2.4 Cotton

Cotton prices are projected to improve modestly from depressed 2025/26 levels. USDA’s May 2026 outlook indicates tighter supplies and higher projected prices, with southern crop summaries noting cotton among the commodities expected to post meaningful year-over-year price improvement in 2026/27.[9] However, cotton remains exposed to sluggish textile demand, competition from synthetic fibers, and global inventory levels.

3. Livestock and Dairy

3.1 Dairy

Dairy prices are expected to remain relatively stable. USDA ERS projects the 2026 all-milk price at about $21.25 per cwt and the 2027 all-milk price at about $20.95 per cwt, with higher milk production in 2027 expected to slightly soften prices despite firm domestic and export demand.[10]

3.2 Cattle and Beef

Cattle and beef prices remain strongly supported by tight U.S. herd inventories. USDA and market reports indicate beef production is expected to remain constrained into 2027, supporting high cattle prices.[11] A new biosecurity risk has also emerged: New World screwworm has been confirmed in Texas cattle, raising concerns for an already tight cattle sector and adding volatility to cattle futures and beef supply expectations.[12]

3.3 Hogs and Poultry

Pork production is expected to increase modestly in 2026, with USDA projecting pork output about 1.4% above 2025, which may limit hog price gains.[13] Poultry margins should benefit from lower feed costs than the 2021–2022 peak period, though disease risk, export access, and feed grain volatility remain important factors.

4. Key Price Drivers in 2026/27

4.1 Supply

The main shift from 2025/26 to 2026/27 is tighter crop supply. Corn production is expected to fall from the prior record crop, wheat production is sharply lower, and cotton supplies are tighter.[1] Brazil remains a major competitive force in soybeans and corn, but rising fertilizer prices and input pressure may reduce Brazil’s cost advantage relative to U.S. producers.[14]

4.2 Demand

Soybean demand is supported by domestic crush and biofuel-related soybean oil use, while corn demand remains supported by feed and ethanol.[6] China remains a critical swing factor for soybeans; recent reporting indicates renewed U.S. soybean orders from China and expectations that China may increase purchases relative to 2025.[7]

4.3 Legislative and Policy Factors: Farm Bill / ARC-PLC

Farm policy is a major support factor in 2026. USDA ERS reports that Farm Bill payments tied to commodity prices are forecast at $15.2 billion in 2026, a sharp increase from 2025, largely due to changes to ARC and PLC programs under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.[15] The 2018 Farm Bill has been extended multiple times, with the current extension scheduled to expire September 30, 2026, leaving longer-term program rules uncertain.[16] For producers, ARC/PLC elections and reference-price mechanics remain important downside-risk tools for the 2026 crop year.[17]

4.4 Global Influences

Global food prices are higher year-over-year, with cereal prices rising in May 2026 due to tighter wheat supplies, higher energy costs, and elevated fertilizer costs.[2] Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions have increased energy and fertilizer-market risk, affecting planting decisions and production costs globally.[2][14] Weather risk, Black Sea grain flows, China demand, and biofuel policy remain the dominant global variables.

5. Price Outlook for 2026/27: Practical Takeaways

The 2026/27 season appears more supportive for crop prices than 2025/26. Corn is projected near $4.40/bu, soybeans near $11.40/bu, and wheat near $6.50/bu, with wheat showing the sharpest improvement due to drought-reduced production and lower ending stocks.[3][6][8] Dairy is expected to remain near $21/cwt, while cattle prices should stay historically strong due to tight supplies and biosecurity risks.[10][12] Overall, the 2026/27 environment is best characterized as tighter supply, firmer crop prices, elevated livestock prices, and continued policy support, with global energy, fertilizer, trade, and weather risks creating meaningful volatility.

Footnotes

[1] USDA, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, May 2026. (USDA)

[2] FAO, Food Price Index, May 2026. (FAOHome)

[3] USDA WASDE / Southern Ag Today summary, May 2026. (Southern Ag Today)

[4] Reuters, “US farmers to sow more soybeans in 2026, less corn, USDA says.” (Reuters)

[5] USDA WASDE summary, May 2026. (RFD-TV)

[6] USDA WASDE, May 2026 soybean outlook. (USDA)

[7] Wall Street Journal summary on Chinese soybean orders, June 2026. (The Wall Street Journal)

[8] High Plains Journal, WASDE wheat summary, May 2026. (High Plains Journal)

[9] Southern Ag Today, May 2026 WASDE highlights. (Southern Ag Today)

[10] USDA ERS, Dairy Market Outlook, May 2026. (Economic Research Service)

[11] USDA livestock outlook summary, May 2026. (RFD-TV)

[12] Reuters, New World screwworm confirmed in Texas cattle, June 2026. (Reuters)

[13] USDA ERS, Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook, April 2026. (Economic Research Service)

[14] Reuters, Brazilian fertilizer/input cost pressure, June 2026. (Reuters)

[15] USDA ERS, Farm Sector Income Forecast, May 2026. (Economic Research Service)

[16] American Farm Bureau Federation, Farm Bill extension status, February 2026. (Farm Bureau)

[17] USDA FSA / Federal Register, ARC-PLC program changes for 2026.